Pipeline Proposal, Promising Potential, Pressure Politics

Alberta's premier ups the ante, despite previous assurances that things were progressing well with Ottawa

While there was no pipeline announced in the first batch of so-called Major Projects announced by the prime minister last month, there was enough in the comments from both Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith to infer that progress was being made toward such a project.

As Smith said at the time:

“Everybody is looking towards trying to find what I call a ‘grand bargain’ how we can improve the investment climate and get some of these projects built,” Smith said.

“We’re moving in that direction, and we only hope to be able to work on a couple of areas where we might have a little bit of a different perspective that we’re working through.”

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If all continues to go well, Smith said she expects there could be an announcement before the end of year.

“I found more common ground with the prime minister when I met with him yesterday than I have with any meeting with the prime minister, so I’m going to continue to work through to get our issues addressed,” Smith said.

In a post on X, Carney said he and Smith are “focused on getting things built” in the province.

A new pipeline would certainly fit in with the objectives and mission of the Major Projects Office. There’s widespread public support for building such projects right now with a slowing and weak economy and the need to diversify trade in the face of disruption and unpredictability from our once reliable trading partner to the south.

But as much as the Major Projects Office and its underlying legislation can hopefully accelerate the process if and when a new pipeline gets approval, the first step remains a hurdle. How can a company create and pursue a pipeline proposal without knowing the federal willingness to put in on this fast track and how can Ottawa fast track a proposal that isn’t yet created or submitted?

This isn’t an insurmountable obstacle, by any means, but perhaps not fast enough for the premier’s liking. So Danielle Smith is hoping to fast track the path to the fast track:

Alberta’s government, acting as proponent, will develop and submit a formal application for a project of national significance to the Federal Major Projects Office under the Building Canada Act. Indigenous communities in Alberta and British Columbia are being engaged from Day 1. Indigenous co-ownership, partnership and perspectives will be critical to every stage of project development and execution.

The advisory group will undertake the early planning, technical assessment and application for an oil pipeline proposal to the northwest coast of British Columbia. When completed, the project will significantly increase market access to responsibly and ethically produced Canadian crude oil products.

Having both federal support and Indigenous buy-in would be two hugely important steps for any proposed new pipeline. However, there’s obviously much work to be done here and a lot of questions as to what comes next.

The announcement mentions a target date of May 2026 to have an application submitted to the Major Projects Office, but the premier also still seems to be hoping for a big announcement at the Grey Cup, which is when Carney has indicated he will announce the next phase of Major Projects. Will there be something for him to approve within the next month-and-a-half?